57 MAIDEN

I created my own crypto conference. With the support of my friends at Gain Ventures, we brought my vision of a ‘Github for go-to-market’ to life. I’ve developed a GTM framework that I’ve seen work from the best crypto founders over my past 8 years in this space. I call it my 3L framework.

Liquid: Fundraising, Infrastructure, Token Design

List: Legal/Security/Compliance, Market Making, Exchanges

Launch: GTM Partnerships, Marketing/PR

We had 100+ attendees, as well as speakers from the likes of Gemini, Delphi Digital, Wintermute, Coinbase, DFDV, Ava Labs, Inversion Capital, Fenwick & West, PWC, Fireblocks, DTCC, Hash3, and Space & Time, and more….

Pundits are exhausting. Just constant bickering with no signal through the noise. Put your money where your mouth is, IMHO, is why Prediction Markets will win. And, instead of shilling you on new projects, funds, or what I’m building, I’m going to educate you with the story of how prediction markets, or the wisdom of the crowds, entered the popular zeitgeist.

Humans like the idea of ‘pricing’ a future uncertain event. Who wins an election, who becomes pope, who wins a war, this has existed for centuries.

Enter our hero Sir Francis Galton in 1906.

Galton was at a livestock fair in Plymouth, England and held a contest in which attendees were asked to guess the weight of a slaughtered and butchered ox. A reported 800 or so guesses were submitted. And while none of the total guesses got the weight correct, Galton noticed something fascinating. He computed that the median estimate of said guesses was 1207 lbs. The actual weight of the ox was 1198 lbs. Thus, the crowd’s median error was only 9 lbs ( ~ .8 %) off.

OMGalton! This was a striking result, as though no individual guessed exactly right, the collective offered a very good estimate. He framed this as an example of “vox populi” (voice of the people), democratic judgment, or what we now call the wisdom of the crowds.

I believe this will have major ramifications for how we price the future, and make decisions in society. The internet unbundled sending and sharing information, Bitcoin unbundled sending and sharing value. Prediction Markets will unbundle and share the future of events. Watch this space. And, if you really want to go down a rabbit hole enjoy this ELI5: What is Futarchy?

Recent Travel

This is an exciting moment for crypto and AI, so stay tuned for opportunities to interact both digitally and IRL. Until then, catch me on the road!

Sept 21-27 Seoul, South Korea: Korea Blockchain week was a huge education for me with retail trading, liquidity and how it flows in crypto. Hyperliquid, Aster, Lighter, Jupiter and a whole bunch of other incredible projects. Picked up a new client.

Sept 27-Oct 1 Singapore: Token 2049, the world’s largest crypto event, delivered as usual. Clients were happy. And, as a treat, I was granted special access to Le Freeport, a high-security storage, vaulting, and display facility for high value assets like fine art, collectibles, bullion, jewelry. It was giving hardcore ‘Thomas Crown Affair’ vibes.

Oct 1-8 Abu Dhabi: My most ambitious Athletes & Alternative Assets event to date was a success. Attendees included current and former NBA (Knicks & Sixers), NFL, EPL players, coaches, execs, 3 royal families, multiple sovereign funds, all representing billions of dollars of AUM. But the real star was the UAE. What a place. Falling more and more in love each trip.

I’m targeting a follow up event in Saudi Arabia next March during Tom Brady’s return to football. (ok flag football)

Note: the main pic of me on this newsletter is with Adam Harrington, nicest guy in the world, and famously Kevin Durant’s shooting coach. Now with Jimmy Butler III and the Warriors.

Upcoming Travel

Oct 26-Nov 1 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: First time attending FII, aka “Davos in the Desert”, a platform for discussing investment opportunities, innovation, economic transformation, and global challenges.

Dec 3-14 Abu Dhabi: Milken, F1, Solana Breakpoint, Bitcoin Mena.

Journey On!