I Can't Stand VAR. And We Need More of It.

I celebrated three goals this week.

One counted.

(If you've watched the World Cup, you know.)

I hate VAR.

I played Division I college soccer and internationally at the highest amateur level. We didn't have replay. The referee made the call. Sometimes they nailed it. Sometimes they completely butchered it. You yelled for 30 seconds, maybe held a grudge for 20 years, and you went about your business.

So during this wickedly entertaining 2026 World Cup, every time the referee taps their ear and everyone just...stands there...I lose my mind. (my high school teammates whom I won back to back State Championships with…lowkey flex…are bearing the brunt of my ire)

I still think VAR gets plenty wrong. Some reviews take way too long. Some fouls should never have gone to the monitor in the first place.

But here's where I stop myself. If the choice is more information or less information...I'm taking more.

The mistake I’m making is comparing today's VAR to the old game. The game has already changed, we’re in a new reality on the pitch and the players are adjusting in real time…The comparison is today's VAR versus VAR ten years from now.

Nobody wants to go back to paper maps because the first GPS was clunky.

Nobody wants to get rid of replay in the NFL because officials occasionally miss something.

V2 > V1 and on and on…(As someone who works in AI...I've become strangely comfortable with Version 1.)

And, I had a realization, I've been making this exact same argument for prediction markets. People complain that the odds move. The market got it wrong. The wisdom of the crowds isn’t a thing.

Noooooooo….that’s not how this works, that’s not how any of this works….

The market learned something, that’s it’s job after all.

Prediction markets don't exist to defend yesterday's opinion, they exist to incorporate today's information. (ooooo, read that again and apply it to your personal life…hint, you were wrong, I was wrong…it’s ok, we’re going to be ok) And that information is valuable, and more of it, with the proper financial incentives in play, and proper regulations of course, are where we’re headed.

VAR is literally trying to do the same thing. Will it get every call right?

Nope. Neither do markets, or humans or AI. The point isn’t perfection here it’s constant improvement.

And, ugh, I can’t believe I’m going to say this, I actually think VAR has made soccer, must see TV!

The match doesn't end anymore. Historically with it’s ability to have 0-0 draws, low scores and long stretches without goals, soccer is difficult for the American brain to comprehend. Now, however, we spend Monday arguing about whether VAR got it right.

And if VAR gave an INSANE penalty against Harry Kane last night v Mexico, well didn’t it make the final 30 minutes must watch TV!?

But for the casual fan now they get to follow the product along in real time like the rest of us crazies.

New information is the product.

One final thought, especially coming off the Fourth of July. One of the things I'm most proud of as an American isn't that we always get it right.

The American experiment has never been about preserving Version 1. It's been about building Version 2...then Version 10...then Version 100. That's true of our markets. It's true of our technology. It's true of AI.

And, believe it or not, it's true of VAR. (ughhhhhhh)

Progress isn't about pretending today's system is perfect. It's about believing tomorrow's system can be better. I'll take that bet every time.

I'll probably complain about VAR at least twice tonight.

(Old habits die hard.)

Let's go USA.

On a personal note

I’m off to Noto, Sicily in a few weeks for a small experiment.

As AI and better tools make us more productive, one of the next great questions becomes….what do we actually do with the time we get back? One of my favorite quotes, “People want to live forever, but can’t figure out what to do on a Saturday afternoon.”

I have this challenge.

I’m spending a week in a fully designed reset. Movement, breathwork, ritual, and clean plant-based nutrition. No gluten, refined sugar, or stimulants. Very woo-woo on paper. Very necessary in practice.

Part of this is personal. I need it. But part of it is research, because I will offer it.

If I’m going to help people in my network build more meaningful lives with their increased bandwidth, I need to put in the work myself.

I’m learning how to play.

Upcoming Travel

July 15-17, New York City; I'll be moderating a panel on one of the fastest-growing corners of venture: athlete-led funds.

Joining me are Isaiah Kacyvenski (Will Ventures), Taylor Griffin (XLIV Capital), and Ryan Nece (Next Legacy Partners) to discuss how athlete-led firms are turning unique networks and access into proprietary deal flow—and ultimately, alpha.